ANALISIS KOMPARATIF LIMA MODEL PREDIKSI KEBANGKRUTAN: BUKTI EMPIRIS DARI PT MATAHARI DEPARTMENT STORE TBK
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56015/gjikplp.v13i7.1109Keywords:
financial distress, bankruptcy prediction, Altman, Springate, Grover, Zmijewski, OhlsonAbstract
This study aims to detect financial distress at PT Matahari Department Store Tbk by comparing five widely used bankruptcy prediction models: Altman Z-Score, Springate S-Score, Grover G-Score, Zmijewski X-Score, and Ohlson O-Score. Using PT PT Matahari Department Store Tbk’s financial data, independent samples t-tests and Cohen’s d effect sizes were employed to assess significant differences among models. The Springate, Grover, and Ohlson models produced identical predictions, with the company facing bankruptcy from 2015 to 2025. Altman produced nearly identical results, except for 2016 and 2017, with a gray prediction. Zmijewski produced the most striking difference, with seven years in the safe category and four years in the bankruptcy zone. Results indicate that Altman, Springate, Grover, and Zmijewski do not differ significantly (p > 0.05), suggesting convergence among MDA-based and probit models. In contrast, Ohlson differs significantly from all four models (p < 0.001) with very large effect sizes (d = 1.96–4.24), reflecting the logit paradigm’s sensitivity to leverage and firm size. The Springate–Grover pair also differs significantly (p = 0.001; d = 1.76). Levene’s test reveals heterogeneity of variances in five pairs, warranting Welch’s correction. Theoretically, the findings support a contingency approach to model selection, while practically, they recommend triangulation of the four MDA models and complementary use of Ohlson as an early warning system.
References
Cahyadi, A., & Mazelfi, I. (2024). Analisis Financial Distress pada Perusahaan Industri Department Store yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Sebelum, Selama, dan Setelah Pandemi Covid-19. Jurnal Eksplorasi Akuntansi, 6(4), 1715–1736.
Charalambous, C., Martzoukos, S. H., & Taoushianis, Z. (2022). Estimating corporate bankruptcy forecasting models by maximizing discriminatory power. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 58(1), 297–328.
Damayanti, V. S., Suharti, T., & Yudhawati, D. (2023). Analisis Financial Distress dengan Menggunakan Model Zmijewski dan Grover pada Perusahaan Sub Sektor Transportasi dan Logistik yang Terdaftar Di BEI. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 1(2), 187–197.
Daryanto, W. M., Abygail, L. E., & Fitri, N. F. (2021). Financial performance analysis and evaluation of PT Matahari Department Store Tbk for the period of 2016-2020.
Dharma, A. F. (2021). Model Analisis Altman, Springate, Grover, Ohlson, & Zmijewski sebagai Early Warning System terhadap Prediksi Financial Distress.
Ditasari, R. A., Triyono, T., & Sasongko, N. (2019). Comparison of altman, springate, zmijewski and grover models in predicting financial distress on companies of Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) on 2013-2017. Proceeding ISETH (International Summit on Science, Technology, and Humanity), 490–504.
Fauzi, S. E., & Saluy, A. B. (2021). Comparative analysis of financial sustainability using the altman Z-score, Springate, Zmijewski and Grover models for companies listed at Indonesia stock exchange sub-sector telecommunication period 2014–2019. Journal of Economics and Business, 4(1).
Hamzah, Z. Z., Putri, R. A., & Herlina, E. (2022). Prediksi Financial Distress Dengan Menggunakan Metode Altman Z”-Score, Springate, Dan Zmijewski Pada Pt Matahari Department Store Tbk Periode 2018-2020. Economicus: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Manajemen, 12(2), 1–9.
Hidayat, A. (2025). Gerai Matahari di Cibubur Junction Tutup, Manajemen Buka Suara. https://finance.detik.com/berita-ekonomi-bisnis/d-8036322/gerai-matahari-di-cibubur-junction-tutup-manajemen-buka-suara
Husein, M. F., & Pambekti, G. T. (2014). Precision of the models of Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, and Grover for predicting the financial distress. Journal of Economics, Business, and Accountancy Ventura, 17(3), 405–416.
Ikpesu, F., Vincent, O., & Dakare, O. (2020). Financial Distress Overview, Determinants, and Sustainable Remedial Measures (pp. 102–113). https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-9607-3.ch006
Jumat, A. N. (2025). Matahari Bagikan Dividen Rp300 Per Saham. https://www.neraca.co.id/article/217522/matahari-bagikan-dividen-rp300-per-saham
Kembi, L. D., & Morasa, J. (2024). Comparative analysis of models (Altman, Grover, Zmijewski, Springate) in predicting company bankruptcy potential in the non-cyclical consumer sector. The Contrarian: Finance, Accounting, and Business Research, 3(2), 180–191.
Kuizinienė, D., Krilavičius, T., Damaševičius, R., & Maskeliūnas, R. (2022). Systematic review of financial distress identification using artificial intelligence methods. Applied Artificial Intelligence, 36(1), 2138124.
Liew, K. F., Lam, W. S., & Lam, W. H. (2023). Financial distress analysis of technology companies using grover model. Computer Sciences & Mathematics Forum, 7(1), 6.
Marsenne, M., Ismail, T., Taqi, M., & Hanifah, I. A. (2024). Financial distress predictions with altman, springate, zmijewski, taffler and grover models. Decision Science Letters, 13(1), 181–190.
Menne, F. (2023). Manajemen Keuangan. PT Literasi Nusantara Abadi Grup.
Morina, F., Ahmeti, B., & Gashi, L. (2024). Determinants of financial failure risk: an econometric study using the Z-Altman and Springate models. Eunomia-Rozwój Zrównoważony-Sustainable Development, 108(2), 69–91.
Munjiyah, M., & Artati, D. (2020). Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan dengan Model Altman, Springate, Ohlson dan Zmijewski Pada Perusahaan Food and Beverage di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Manajemen, Bisnis Dan Akuntansi (JIMMBA), 2(6), 901–909.
Ohlson, J. A. (1980). Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research, 109–131.
Pranata, C. D. (2025). Matahari Tutup 2 Toko Dalam Sebulan, Manajemen Beri Pengumuman Ini. https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20250730134958-4-653570/matahari-tutup-2-toko-dalam-sebulan-manajemen-beri-pengumuman-ini
Prasetianingtias, E., & Kusumowati, D. (2019). Analisis Perbandingan Model Altman, Grover, Zmijewski Dan Springate Sebagai Prediksi Financial Distress. Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Perpajakan, 5(1), 9–14.
PT Matahari Department Store. (2024). Laporan Tahunan 2024 PT Matahari Department Store Tbk: On the Runway.
Putri, A. M. (2020). Analisis Potensi Kebangkrutan pada PT Matahari Department Store Tbk. Universitas Negeri Makassar.
Putri, I. T., Hadiwibowo, I., & Azis, M. T. (2023). Springate, Ohlson, Altman Z-Score, Zmijewski, Grover, CA Score Model of Financial Distress Analysis in Retail Companies. AFEBI Economic and Finance Review, 8(2), 89–102.
Radovanovic, J., & Haas, C. (2023). The evaluation of bankruptcy prediction models based on socio-economic costs. Expert Systems with Applications, 227, 120275.
Rezende, F. F., Montezano, R. M. da S., Oliveira, F. N. de, & Lameira, V. de J. (2022). Predicting financial distress in publicly-traded companies. Revista Contabilidade & Finanças, 28, 390–406.
Saha, P., & Ahmed, S. (2024). Comprehensive Analysis of Altman’s Z Score, Zmijewski X Score, Springate S-Score and Grover G-Score Model for Predicting Financial Health of Listed Non-Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs) of Bangladesh. Open Journal of Business and Management, 12(05), 3342–3365. https://doi.org/10.4236/ojbm.2024.125167
Schmuck, M. (2013). Financial Distress and Corporate Turnaround. Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-01908-2
Sucipto, R. H. (2023). Prediksi Financial Distress dan Kebangkrutan PT Mahaka Media Tbk. Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis, 3(2), 73–80.
Sucipto, R. H. (2025). Metode Penelitian Bisnis. PT Dewangga Energi Internasional.
Sucipto, R. H., Daniel, D., Sumantri, F., & Indra, N. (2024). Analysis of financial distress and bankruptcy of PT Garuda Indonesia Tbk.
Sucipto, R. H., Sumantri, F., & Taruna, H. I. (2024). Predicting Financial Distress and Bankruptcy of PT Sepatu Bata Tbk with Six Methods. Jurnal Economic Resource, 7(2), 34–46. https://doi.org/10.57178/jer.v7i2.977
Tanjung, P. R. S. (2020). Comparative analysis of Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijewski and Ohlson models in predicting financial distress. EPRA International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research (IJMR)-Peer Reviewed Journal, 6(3), 126–137.
Viciwati, V. (2020). Bankruptcy prediction analysis using the Zmijewski model (x-Score) and the Altman model (z-Score). Dinasti International Journal of Economics, Finance & Accounting, 1(5), 794–806.
Vukčević, M., Lakićević, M., Melović, B., Backović, T., & Dudić, B. (2024). Modern models for predicting bankruptcy to detect early signals of business failure: Evidence from Montenegro. PLOS ONE, 19(5), e0303793. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0303793
Wang, P. (2023). A modified Ohlson (1995) model and its applications. European Accounting Review, 32(3), 663–691.
Wulandari, E., & Fauzi, I. (2022). Analisis perbandingan potensi kebangkrutan dengan model grover, altman z-score, springate dan zmijewski pada perusahaan real estate dan property di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Ekonomi, Keuangan, Investasi Dan Syariah (EKUITAS), 4(1), 109–117.
Xhindi, T., & Shestani, K. (2020). Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Prediction: an Empirical Analysis of the Manufacturing Industry in Albania. Wseas Transactions on Business And Economics, 17, 33–40. https://doi.org/10.37394/23207.2020.17.5
Yuliana, Y. (2021). Analisis Financial Distres pada PT Matahari Departement Store Tbk. Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Keuangan Universitas Bandar Lampung, 12(1), 1–8.
Zhao, J., Ouenniche, J., & De Smedt, J. (2024). Survey, classification and critical analysis of the literature on corporate bankruptcy and financial distress prediction. Machine Learning with Applications, 15, 100527. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mlwa.2024.100527
